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USDINR The daily RSI came down  to 18.28, a level below 22 has been associated with many previous bottoms. You can however get a few more new lows and positive divergences before the turn around. That said USDINR closed positive and can be marked as complete as a A-B-C decline from the Nov top. Wave C just completed 5 waves down. So unless wave v of C forms an ending pattern and stretches a little lower we should have a bottom at 65.23. 65.20 is also the monthly lower Bollinger band support. USDGBP USDGBP is forming a triangle and wave E down to 0.79 is now in progress. That will complete the triangle as wave E of 4 is the last needed leg. At 0.79 we will have to look for a bottom and the start of wave 5 up as the final push for the current fractal. Will discuss it when it starts to develop USDBRL The Brazilian Real is clearly for Weak Dollar. But people are still debating it. Good. The BRL completed wave B and started wave C down. Wave C now poin

Elliott Wave analysts get blamed for having marked the Y2K top as the end of the 5th wave which was probably just the 4th. This is an occupational hazard. The time frame involved means that if you are wrong then its years worth in price. Still that does not diminish the importance of knowing where you are in the Fractal. Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

For a while I have felt that the Euro is going to give the lead signal for the dollar index. which is why I have been covering it more actively in the recent months. So it broke out of a inverted head and shoulders bottom yesterday by closing above 1.0795. Staying above it the trend up should continue towards the weekly resistance near 1.083 and above that a clear shot to the 1.15 mark exists. The only alternate I was considering was that if we failed to breakout above 1.0795 then maybe the Euro forms a triangle with one last push down to 1.055. I do not expect this as the rally appears quite impulsive to me and subdividing and extending. But a failure to hold above 1.0795 would open up this case. So far we are above the breakout point. Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading tech

Dollar Index Dollar index has fallen in 3 waves so far. A move below 99.34 the recent low should confirm the impulsive behaviour. If that does not happen the best alternate is to think that we are forming a triangle and prices will test the falling trendline near 101.7 again in the coming weeks. Looking at cross rates I would expect the impulsive decline to continue in the dollar, The pattern in the Euro has a major weight in the dollar index and can have an impact in the near term CRB Index CRB index has fallen in 3 waves and could be due for another move back up to 198 near the upper line. It could be impulsive or as shown wave d of a on going triangle structure. We will see at that point. A triangle has 5 waves a-b-c-d-e and so failure to breakout above 198 would mean wave e down later in the final wave of consolidation. Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clie

Copper Copper prices bounced off the 20 week average again. So will we bottom at 2.58 or 2.48 remains open. It could be either. Maybe wave z is done or we will see one more sell off in copper before its done. A move above 2.70 should mean that wave 3 to new highs has already begun. Silver The advance in Silver has been slow and steady and so the last 5 days are a series of doji patterns. We are still to close above the 20dma at 17.55. The trend however is up. Now if there is a dip it would mean wave ii is still forming but I will not be surprised to see a 1$ pop up from this slow up move one fine morning. Silver is shaking out weak hands as Open Interest is high. Jeera Quintal NCDEX Jeera broke out of a small trading range at the lows that was forming all month long so hopefully we have finally started wave 3 up of larger degree. #=1 points to 24000 over the next 6 months. Support is at 16800-17200 range Lead MCX The falling dollar has manag

S&P This chart of the S&P on an arithmetic scale should be self explanatory. We are the upper channel line. But till we get a down month on this time frame we cannot say the trend has reversed as well. The CRB index closed the week positive and may have bottomed near the lower end of the one year range. So we may again go up to test the upper end of the range. Wave wise keep both alternates open, wave 3 up or (d) up has started let us see. Euro The Euro weekly momentum remains positive. A rising parallel channel points to a move up to the weekly upper Bollinger band near 1.094 in the coming weeks USD INR The weak dollar has finally rubbed off on the USDINR. The currency pair broke the Nov, wave 4 low of 66.20, 30 mins ago and that means that the 5 wave rise from the 2014 bottom of 58.40 is over. The 5th wave truncated as a double top. This might also mean that the 2011-2016 5 year move up in the USDINR ended and a larger degree wave

Tech Sector And The Dollar You often hear the argument about the USDINR going up driving tech stocks or the INR getting stronger driving down IT stocks. in the near term I often think that argument does not hold because the USDINR mostly goes up when fund flows are negative into equities and so it involves selling pressure on stocks. So Tech stocks are unlikely to go up during an equity decline. But later once the devaluation is done there is a stimulative impact. So the right way to look at it might be longer term trends of the dollar. Even better how do tech stocks do relative to the Sensex during such a period. I have never liked the street argument that favours investment in tech stocks as a defensive? A growth sector is now a defence against a poor market? Has that really worked? During 2003-2008 the last bull market the IT sector was one of the worst performing sectors, in the sense that on a relative basis they did not go up as much as the Sensex. So here is the rel