Adam Smith Associates

The BSE Metal index can be marked as 5 waves up so do not be surprised if a near term correction shows up. A 38% to 50% retracement is normal up to 10700 or 10500. However this should be the first impulse wave of a larger trend up for the sector. So will need to watch out for a re-entry point. Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article is purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Gold is making new highs extending last weeks rally. In Elliott wave language an extentions means adding 3 more waves higher before the trend can end. On the other hand Silver is still to make a new high. Gold is showing extentions on the hourly chart so I am imposing the wave count from the spot Comex chart on the Mcx chart below. Hourly charts show wave iv ended and wave v up started. The vth wave is subdividing into a 9 legged rally. 1230$ is the Fibonacci projection for an extended wave, and 1247$ is the 50% retracement mark. In rupee terms it could be closer to 29500-30000. Silver made a high at 16.9820 which has not been surpassed over the last few days. But when done then we are looking at 17.40-17.84 as the next two levels on the way up. 17.84 is where wave iii=i. 17.61 the 40dema is acting as a support.  Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views express

The Euro formed a doji star. A doji star is when the open and close for the week is the same. A doji star represents a loss of momentum or a pause in trend. The following week usually confirms this by a close above or below the high/low of the doji star candle. This week we closed above the high made last week confirming a potential trend reversal from down to up that should test the previous swing high of 1.087. Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article is purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

The Dollar index has been falling for three consecutive weeks. The decline so far is not huge but it was enough to push the weekly momentum back to the sell side. However we have not gone back below the trendline of the expanding pattern seen since 2015. The level is 101. A close below 101 would make the most recent rally a false breakout from this pattern. Most dollar index bullish calls are based on an exponential move from this breakout. However the rally ended at 104 near the 61.8% mark of a long term retracement resistance, of the 2002-2008 bear market in the dollar. That was a very important level and was not surpassed. Failure to cross 104 can result in long term bearish consequences. Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article is purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services

Platinium Spot prices can often give lead indications about the Precious metals space. The ending pattern at the end last years correction shown in blue on the chart was indicative of a possible bottom soon. Though it did take time and retraced more than I would like, the reversal is complete. We now have an upward breakout into a 3rd wave. Wave 3 would retest the highs in the coming year. 3=1 points to 1260$ as a potential level for the coming year. Near term there is support at 957$, The initial rally was impulsive and if it extends we will go to 1072$, in the coming weeks Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article is purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Soy Oil has been in an uptrend for most of the year with brief corrections. the move up will complete 5 waves. So far we are in the third wave and probably wave 5 of 3. The chart shows a good channel and prices were resisted at the upper channel a couple of times. The channel line is now near 760 as the next resistance. Fibonacci projections go to 770 and 804. The recent bottom was near 704 marking one more higher bottom for prices Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article is purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Aluminium prices surpassed the December high to a new 52 week high this week. The 20 week average [red line] held as support, and the weekly momentum in the upper end of the chart went back into buy mode. All the moves last year were corrective and were therefore indicating the move up was corrective. That entire pattern is taken as a triangle that ends in wave E. Only from there do we start a new impulse wave up. Now we are starting a third wave that can go up to 135 in the next wave based on Fibonacci projections Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article is purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd