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Showing posts from March, 2017

USD vs INR, GBP, BRL,JPY, TWD Technical Analysis

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USDINR The daily RSI came down  to 18.28, a level below 22 has been associated with many previous bottoms. You can however get a few more new lows and positive divergences before the turn around. That said USDINR closed positive and can be marked as complete as a A-B-C decline from the Nov top. Wave C just completed 5 waves down. So unless wave v of C forms an ending pattern and stretches a little lower we should have a bottom at 65.23. 65.20 is also the monthly lower Bollinger band support.



USDGBP USDGBP is forming a triangle and wave E down to 0.79 is now in progress. That will complete the triangle as wave E of 4 is the last needed leg. At 0.79 we will have to look for a bottom and the start of wave 5 up as the final push for the current fractal. Will discuss it when it starts to develop


USDBRL The Brazilian Real is clearly for Weak Dollar. But people are still debating it. Good. The BRL completed wave B and started wave C down. Wave C now points to 2.778 as the next target. B was a t…

Dow Long Term Outlook

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Elliott Wave analysts get blamed for having marked the Y2K top as the end of the 5th wave which was probably just the 4th. This is an occupational hazard. The time frame involved means that if you are wrong then its years worth in price. Still that does not diminish the importance of knowing where you are in the Fractal.



Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Euro Leads The Dollar

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For a while I have felt that the Euro is going to give the lead signal for the dollar index. which is why I have been covering it more actively in the recent months. So it broke out of a inverted head and shoulders bottom yesterday by closing above 1.0795. Staying above it the trend up should continue towards the weekly resistance near 1.083 and above that a clear shot to the 1.15 mark exists.
The only alternate I was considering was that if we failed to breakout above 1.0795 then maybe the Euro forms a triangle with one last push down to 1.055. I do not expect this as the rally appears quite impulsive to me and subdividing and extending. But a failure to hold above 1.0795 would open up this case. So far we are above the breakout point.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visi…

Dollar Index And CRB Index Technical Analysis

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Dollar Index Dollar index has fallen in 3 waves so far. A move below 99.34 the recent low should confirm the impulsive behaviour. If that does not happen the best alternate is to think that we are forming a triangle and prices will test the falling trendline near 101.7 again in the coming weeks. Looking at cross rates I would expect the impulsive decline to continue in the dollar, The pattern in the Euro has a major weight in the dollar index and can have an impact in the near term



CRB Index CRB index has fallen in 3 waves and could be due for another move back up to 198 near the upper line. It could be impulsive or as shown wave d of a on going triangle structure. We will see at that point. A triangle has 5 waves a-b-c-d-e and so failure to breakout above 198 would mean wave e down later in the final wave of consolidation.
Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this arti…

Copper, Silver, Lead & Jeera Technical Analysis

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Copper
Copper prices bounced off the 20 week average again. So will we bottom at 2.58 or 2.48 remains open. It could be either. Maybe wave z is done or we will see one more sell off in copper before its done. A move above 2.70 should mean that wave 3 to new highs has already begun.

Silver The advance in Silver has been slow and steady and so the last 5 days are a series of doji patterns. We are still to close above the 20dma at 17.55. The trend however is up. Now if there is a dip it would mean wave ii is still forming but I will not be surprised to see a 1$ pop up from this slow up move one fine morning. Silver is shaking out weak hands as Open Interest is high.


Jeera Quintal NCDEX Jeera broke out of a small trading range at the lows that was forming all month long so hopefully we have finally started wave 3 up of larger degree. #=1 points to 24000 over the next 6 months. Support is at 16800-17200 range


Lead MCX The falling dollar has managed to have a positive rub off on some metals ap…

Technical Analysis - Indices And Currencies

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S&P This chart of the S&P on an arithmetic scale should be self explanatory. We are the upper channel line. But till we get a down month on this time frame we cannot say the trend has reversed as well.


The CRB index closed the week positive and may have bottomed near the lower end of the one year range. So we may again go up to test the upper end of the range. Wave wise keep both alternates open, wave 3 up or (d) up has started let us see.


Euro The Euro weekly momentum remains positive. A rising parallel channel points to a move up to the weekly upper Bollinger band near 1.094 in the coming weeks


USD INR The weak dollar has finally rubbed off on the USDINR. The currency pair broke the Nov, wave 4 low of 66.20, 30 mins ago and that means that the 5 wave rise from the 2014 bottom of 58.40 is over. The 5th wave truncated as a double top. This might also mean that the 2011-2016 5 year move up in the USDINR ended and a larger degree wave 4 consolidation started. This can go on for a ye…

Tech Sector And The Dollar

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Tech Sector And The Dollar
You often hear the argument about the USDINR going up driving tech stocks or the INR getting stronger driving down IT stocks. in the near term I often think that argument does not hold because the USDINR mostly goes up when fund flows are negative into equities and so it involves selling pressure on stocks. So Tech stocks are unlikely to go up during an equity decline. But later once the devaluation is done there is a stimulative impact. So the right way to look at it might be longer term trends of the dollar. Even better how do tech stocks do relative to the Sensex during such a period. I have never liked the street argument that favours investment in tech stocks as a defensive? A growth sector is now a defence against a poor market? Has that really worked? During 2003-2008 the last bull market the IT sector was one of the worst performing sectors, in the sense that on a relative basis they did not go up as much as the Sensex. So here is the relative chart …

Commodity Technical Analysis - Gold, Copper, Soy Meal CBT, Rough Rice, Silver, Aluminium, Crude, Lead, Zinc and Soy Bean

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Gold The hourly chart of gold. First we had the breakout from the falling channel after 3 waves down. Then a formation of a triangle at the bottom up to yesterdays low. Wave e of the triangle has a small throw under the lower line. Triangles have occurred at both the previous bottoms in the gold price that were associated with the Fed rate hikes so this is like a pattern now. Breaking out upwards from a triangle should mean a bottom is in place.


Copper Copper - sold off the highs today. It is close to the falling trendline from the highs at 2.71. The daily momentum however turned into a buy. The recent low for copper was at the 20 week average. So if prices do breakout above 2.71 it would confirm that the rally is not an X wave before another decline but the start of a move to a new high.


Soy Meal (CBT) Soy Meal [CBT] prices have fallen a bit after the small push up from the FEB low. So wave III did not start, but remains due. Daily momentum is picking up again A close above 330-331 woul…

Technical Analysis - USDINR, USDCNY, Euro and US 5 Years T Notes

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USD INR
USDINR has been falling for a while and reached the lower end of a falling channel from the NOV top. At the recent low we have formed a ending diagonal shown in blue. This at the lower Bollinger band with positive divergences in the RSI and momentum in buy mode we have a set up for a bottom. Will the next move end up being a X wave retracing the 3 month decline or the start of a larger move up? That we will answer based on the impulsive behaviour of the rise. 61.8% of the A-B-C fall is at 68 so that would be the initial objective. 67.12 the 40dema would be the first important resistance.


USD CNY USDCNY - starts its next move in wave v of III towards 7.05 at the upper end of the long term channel

US 5 Years T Notes US Yields made new multi year highs today. I decided to move away from the 10/30 year charts that I usually use because they did not give me a clear indication that we were in wave 4. So the 5 year note was a good idea. The Monthly chart shows wave C down developing and …

Commodity technical analysis - Sugar, BSE Metal, Copper and CRB Index

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Sugar
Sugar Prices in the Global market broke the rising trendline of the channel so I am making this change to the chart for now. This means that Sugar prices might be done here and we might see lower prices in wave C down. This would be a zig-zag and can be a deep correction so sugar stocks can also take a hit near term on this. Prices and stocks do not always correlate but it is a risk to be aware of especially if you are trading. Once done we should see a new rally in sugar prices. Till then we will sit back on this


Similarly I must consider that domestic sugar prices have completed wave 5 at the reccent high. I was waiting for wave 5 to extend more but it did not and this means that Sugar prices on NCDEX may fall to the wave 4 low near 3330 at least. If that level breaks we can bet lower levels. Daily weekly momentum is already in sell mode and 3600 is the weekly average support. 38.2% of the 5 wave rise is at 3200 and 50% is at 3000


BSE Metals BSE Metals index was moving higher bu…

Russel 200 CRB Index and Nasdaq Composite Indices technical analysis

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Russel 2000 The Russel 2000 index is leading the way down and lagged the Dow in its move to new highs recently. The rollover in prices from record optimism for US stocks marks a point at these highs that maybe important. In other words an important Medium term top may be in place for US stocks. There is also a major divergence at the highs on the RSI as momentum was lost


CRB Index The commodity index started wave (c) of B down. The failure to breakout into wave C of larger degree makes this the best case. Commodity prices are reacting accross the board but this index has a larger component of energy. We have to give it time for wave (c) down to complete.


Nasdaq Composite I have discussed how the arithmetic scale has been better for US indices since 2009 to fit a channel into the rise. So the Nasdaq composite is not only at the upper end but at the point where wave 5=1, and where wave 3=1.618 times wave 1. This is quite a perfect fractal, textbook to say the least rare, and the Sensex had t…

Adam Smith Associates 30 Year Bond

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Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

The 30 year bond price has been in a trading range for 2 months that looks like a triangle. 149.80 is the lower end of the range where wave e of B should complete. Following its completion we should expect wave C up to unfold. Rising bond prices have evaded me for a while but we now have multiple bottoms at this level that I believe should eventually lead to higher prices [lower yields]. This might have nothing to do with the FED hike expectations I think but lets see. A 25 basis hike might be priced in at these yields. Bonds might just get the safe haven bid in wave C up.

Adam Smith Associates Volatility Index

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Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd
VIX - Volatility Index
The US CBOE VIX has not been making new lows with the new highs in the US stock market. An inter market divergence that maybe indicative of a impending trend reversal.



Adam Smith Associates - Bond Vs Equtiies

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Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd
I have no problem noting that US equities rallied from the point bonds bottomed. But clearaly bond market rallies are associated with equity declines [Dow in this case], and the reverse. So the bond market crash [upper half of chart], is associated with a stock market rally since June [Brexit]. However even after bonds bottomed in Dec they have not taken off upwards and equities have so it is a long wait but sooner than later when you see bond prices get a bid again it will cause an equity market decline. It is just history

Adam Smith Associates - Dollar Index The Big Picture

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Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

The Big Picture - The Dollar index follows cycles and is due to turn down into the next 7 year bear market sooner than later. This chart of the dollar index says so. If cycles repeat they should.


Adam Smith Associates - Commodity Technical Analysis 4th March

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Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd
Gold
Gold is close to completing a 3 wave correction in wave 2. With support near 1222 from that low if we project wave 3=1 we get 1376. So the target moves up again as the fractal continues to develop. I am not anticipating a deeper correction at this stage unless the 1220 level is broken.



Silver
Silver and gold both appear to be completing wave 2 declines. Silver closed positive for today after making a low near the 40dema, so in case of Silver an a-b-c decline is complete and it could have bottomed already. Wave 3=1 points to 20.80



Adam Smith Associates - ADR And Dollar Index Technical Analysis

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Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

ADR Index The Bank of New York ADR index has been edging up slowly within wave E of a wedge like formation for months now. Price has still not touched the upper yellow trendline which is close to 135. We maybe forming a wedge near the end of wave E shown in blue and could be close to completion as well after one more push higher. All this also brings us close to the Oct 2015 swing high seen in the index.

Dollar Index The Dollar index surpassed the 61.8% mark and moved to 66% retracement at 102.26 so a new level to watch for today. After that maybe I need to think about this view