USD vs INR, GBP, BRL,JPY, TWD Technical Analysis



USDINR
The daily RSI came down  to 18.28, a level below 22 has been associated with many previous bottoms. You can however get a few more new lows and positive divergences before the turn around. That said USDINR closed positive and can be marked as complete as a A-B-C decline from the Nov top. Wave C just completed 5 waves down. So unless wave v of C forms an ending pattern and stretches a little lower we should have a bottom at 65.23. 65.20 is also the monthly lower Bollinger band support.




USDGBP
USDGBP is forming a triangle and wave E down to 0.79 is now in progress. That will complete the triangle as wave E of 4 is the last needed leg. At 0.79 we will have to look for a bottom and the start of wave 5 up as the final push for the current fractal. Will discuss it when it starts to develop



USDBRL
The Brazilian Real is clearly for Weak Dollar. But people are still debating it. Good. The BRL completed wave B and started wave C down. Wave C now points to 2.778 as the next target. B was a triangle and prices did not cross the 20 week average. Daily and weekly momentum is in sell mode.


US 30 Years Bonds
The US 30 year bonds should have now completed 5 waves down Long term and started the Most powerful counter trend move up for the year. Early days but the rally should continue and yields will go lower on the 10/30 year rates. Sentiment is also poised accordingly with the readings showing even more Short Positions now than they did at the wave 3 low in Dec among speculators, based on CFTC Positions



USDJPY
It starts next move down in wave III and wave III points down to the 108.30 level. At a larger degree the fall from the Dec high [X] will be wave Y down and develop into 3 waves to be marked as A-B-C. We are in A, a 5 wave decline right now.



USDTWD - The Taiwanese dollar is in wave C down. C=A points to 29.28 in the coming months. The falling channel would be there by end of April.





Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

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