USD vs INR, GBP, BRL,JPY, TWD Technical Analysis



USDINR
The daily RSI came down  to 18.28, a level below 22 has been associated with many previous bottoms. You can however get a few more new lows and positive divergences before the turn around. That said USDINR closed positive and can be marked as complete as a A-B-C decline from the Nov top. Wave C just completed 5 waves down. So unless wave v of C forms an ending pattern and stretches a little lower we should have a bottom at 65.23. 65.20 is also the monthly lower Bollinger band support.




USDGBP
USDGBP is forming a triangle and wave E down to 0.79 is now in progress. That will complete the triangle as wave E of 4 is the last needed leg. At 0.79 we will have to look for a bottom and the start of wave 5 up as the final push for the current fractal. Will discuss it when it starts to develop



USDBRL
The Brazilian Real is clearly for Weak Dollar. But people are still debating it. Good. The BRL completed wave B and started wave C down. Wave C now points to 2.778 as the next target. B was a triangle and prices did not cross the 20 week average. Daily and weekly momentum is in sell mode.


US 30 Years Bonds
The US 30 year bonds should have now completed 5 waves down Long term and started the Most powerful counter trend move up for the year. Early days but the rally should continue and yields will go lower on the 10/30 year rates. Sentiment is also poised accordingly with the readings showing even more Short Positions now than they did at the wave 3 low in Dec among speculators, based on CFTC Positions



USDJPY
It starts next move down in wave III and wave III points down to the 108.30 level. At a larger degree the fall from the Dec high [X] will be wave Y down and develop into 3 waves to be marked as A-B-C. We are in A, a 5 wave decline right now.



USDTWD - The Taiwanese dollar is in wave C down. C=A points to 29.28 in the coming months. The falling channel would be there by end of April.





Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Popular posts from this blog

Dow Long Term Outlook

Image
Elliott Wave analysts get blamed for having marked the Y2K top as the end of the 5th wave which was probably just the 4th. This is an occupational hazard. The time frame involved means that if you are wrong then its years worth in price. Still that does not diminish the importance of knowing where you are in the Fractal. Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd
Read more

Trade Finance News and Trends

Trade finance modernization turns towards blockchain A study of European treasurers by working capital fintech C2FO finds that 75% are focusing on investing in trade finance technology in 2017. Colin Sharp, senior vice-president, EMEA at C2FO, says the shifting macroeconomic environment is pressuring corporates to refocus their efforts on trade finance: “Treasurers are facing a lot of uncertainty, both from the US and around Brexit. This is putting stress on the supply chain, with demand increasing and decreasing. Treasures want the ability to use their assets to make returns and give some certainty. Source: https://www.euromoney.com/article/b12khnzp4pq9p5/trade-finance-modernization-turns-towards-blockchain --------------------------------------------- ICC Academy unveils new e-course on digital trade finance and fintechs The educational arm of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), the ICC Academy, has launched an advanced-level e-course entitled “Digital Trade Financ
Read more

Adam Smith Associates - Soy Meal should move from 310 to 420

Image
Soy Meal Continuous has been consolidating for 3 months in a narrow range after the initial move up. The next move higher may now have started. Yesterdays move broke out of the trend line of the highs and closed above it. Soy prices should move from 310 to 420 near the previous high in the 3rd wave on the CBT exchange. Staying above the 315 and 325 short term supports should be bullish for Soy. Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article is purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst.
Read more