Technical Analysis - Indices And Currencies



S&P
This chart of the S&P on an arithmetic scale should be self explanatory. We are the upper channel line. But till we get a down month on this time frame we cannot say the trend has reversed as well.



The CRB index closed the week positive and may have bottomed near the lower end of the one year range. So we may again go up to test the upper end of the range. Wave wise keep both alternates open, wave 3 up or (d) up has started let us see.



Euro
The Euro weekly momentum remains positive. A rising parallel channel points to a move up to the weekly upper Bollinger band near 1.094 in the coming weeks



USD INR
The weak dollar has finally rubbed off on the USDINR. The currency pair broke the Nov, wave 4 low of 66.20, 30 mins ago and that means that the 5 wave rise from the 2014 bottom of 58.40 is over. The 5th wave truncated as a double top. This might also mean that the 2011-2016 5 year move up in the USDINR ended and a larger degree wave 4 consolidation started. This can go on for a year or two in the 69-59 range broadly. Right now 65.20 is the next major support near the monthly lower Bollinger band. We may quickly get there the way a free fall is going on. RSI is already oversold but that is not holding prices. Wave wise we are in wave v of c down for the current decline so this is the final move down. But it is not over till it is. So even for a relief rally we have to wait and let the slide complete itself.


US 30 Years Bonds
US 30 year bonds completed a 5 wave decline from the wave 4 triangle. Now either wave 5 extends or has ended and we have a bottom in place. The low matches the June 2015 swing low and so it is a good support level. The 2015 swing low was wave 4 of the rise and also a triangle on the way up.





Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

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