Adam Smith Associates

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd Flasback 2007 - [ dollar gold and equities inter market analysis] We maybe at a point where the US or Developed markets and EM or Developing markets diverge from each other strongly for a while. If not on an absolute basis then on a relative basis. And here is why. A falling dollar is not always good for the US/DM combine as the rising dollar meant rising flows to the US and falling Euro Yen etc was a stimulus to the other economies. Now when the dollar falls however it means stability for the EM/ASia/DevM combine as their debts are no more at currency risk and many are commodity producers and will do well when commodity prices are r, ising. -Here is

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd Dollar Analysis The dollar index forming wave II as an expanded flat. Wave III down yet to begin Euro - Hammer & Bull The Euro completed a 61.8% retracement and bounced right back forming a hammer and a Engulfing bull Candlestick patter on the chart. Wave 2 down for the Euro should now mostly be complete. This should mean that the dollar tops and starts to fall as well. Wave 3=1 points to 1.10 as the next level for the fractal. Yesterdays low of 1.052 should now be an important low.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd The positive rub off of the reflation rally in commodities on countries that are producers like Australia is also an extended move higher. On this long term chart we can project wave E up to the upper line near 6380 based on this trend.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd Taiwan - The reflation rally is having a positive impact on Asian and EM markets. Taiwan is extending a move that looked like a retracement. The best alternate is that it is wave E of a larger expanding pattern. Then there is room for it to go on to the upper line near 10427.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd EURINR It is not easy trading a cross rate and so I think I got it wrong early. The EURINR failed to cross the 73 mark twice in 3 months that I wrote about it. While my view on the Euro played out this contract fell far more than expected due to the delayed decline in the USDINR in the face of a falling dollar. So the gains were completely given back. The lesson here is that while dealing in a cross rate you may hedge the cross currency. So a view on being bullish EURUSD means that the USD is going down and that the INR is going up. If both happen at the same time there is little impact but in this case that was not true. A falling USDINR therefore should

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd The 50% retracement mark has been reached near 1.059 and 61.8% is at 1.053. Wave II should complete at one of these levels giving way to wave III up that will breakout of the inverted H&S structure with its neckline at 1.082.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit  www.adamsmith.tv  for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd Gold should be starting its next move up. The 20 dma at 1213 and yesterdays swing low of 1223 are supports. iii=i points to 1288 as the next level up based on the fibonacci projection for minor wave iii