Adam Smith Associates

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd NASDAQ 100 The RSI moved up to 85 for the Nasdaq 100 as the RSI rises one way with price. There should be a knee jerk reaction sometime to release the overbought reading before the move goes on Dollar Index The Dollar index has formed a head and shoulders top like formation. The right shoulder is a wave II bounce back that ended with an inverted hammer candle pattern. Wave II is an expanded flat wave pattern. Wave III down should test the neckline at 99.10 and on a close below it we should head to the next swing level of 96.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd Crude Crude Oil has spent some time consolidating above the 50$ mark after it broke out of an inverted head and shoulders bottom. Once crude gets past the 55.24, wave 1 high, we should be well on our way to 65$ as the next level that is close to the upper end of the rising channel from the Oct 2016 low at 42.20 Copper Copper took support at the 20dma near 2.70$ and should be well on its way into wave iii of 3. It could move to 2.90-3.02 as the next set of Fibonacci levels based on the Elliott wave fractal. Silver Unlike gold, Silver is seeing a slow and steady advance with daily ups and down. However having broken out of the fa...

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd The Kondratieff cycle was a source of some serious discussion last month at the ATMA meet and I think it was relevant. A lot of science has been used to project end of the world scenarios to the public at large. A lot of science ends in intellectual mind breaking and our search for the holy grail. The answer to all answers. To an extent I do use the Kf cycle to present the case for the Indian economy in a clear light. The monetary cycle is to explain the behaviour of the economy and stock market. But remember that I too use this cycle once in my life. And the cycle is a generational cycle, meaning that it lasts an entire lif...

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd USDSGD Last year I was bullish on the USDSGD and it turned out right. But now as the dollar is weakening I am considering alternate paths. So I wonder if the strong rally at the start of 2011 is wave 1, and not part of what looked like a triangle because of the trendlines. If that is true then the rally in 2016 was wave 5 and the move to a new high completes the pattern. This allows for a deeper correction. The Fibonacci math fit perfectly as wave 3 = 1.618 times wave 1, and wave 5 is just short of equal to wave 1. In this case going back to 1.33 over a year is possible. Euro The Euro completed its right shoulder of an inverted H&S p...

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd BGMI When you look at this index you get an idea of the History of Gold mining. The BGMI or Barrons Gold Mining Index shows its bull market from the 19640's to 1982. It was long. The surprise to many would be the sharp decline in the 2010-2014 period given that Gold prices itself did not fall that much. So you were getting gold miners at 2001 prices [not yet they have moved up now]. The real question to ask is will another long term bull market now begin! The prices from 1982 fit a nice channel. Soy Meal CBT Soy Meal futures bottomed in Oct from what was a very deep correction of last years rally. They have now clearly started another move u...

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd Flasback 2007 - [ dollar gold and equities inter market analysis] We maybe at a point where the US or Developed markets and EM or Developing markets diverge from each other strongly for a while. If not on an absolute basis then on a relative basis. And here is why. A falling dollar is not always good for the US/DM combine as the rising dollar meant rising flows to the US and falling Euro Yen etc was a stimulus to the other economies. Now when the dollar falls however it means stability for the EM/ASia/DevM combine as their debts are no more at currency risk and many are commodity producers and will do well when commodity prices are r, ising. -Here is ...

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd Dollar Analysis The dollar index forming wave II as an expanded flat. Wave III down yet to begin Euro - Hammer & Bull The Euro completed a 61.8% retracement and bounced right back forming a hammer and a Engulfing bull Candlestick patter on the chart. Wave 2 down for the Euro should now mostly be complete. This should mean that the dollar tops and starts to fall as well. Wave 3=1 points to 1.10 as the next level for the fractal. Yesterdays low of 1.052 should now be an important low.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd The positive rub off of the reflation rally in commodities on countries that are producers like Australia is also an extended move higher. On this long term chart we can project wave E up to the upper line near 6380 based on this trend.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd Taiwan - The reflation rally is having a positive impact on Asian and EM markets. Taiwan is extending a move that looked like a retracement. The best alternate is that it is wave E of a larger expanding pattern. Then there is room for it to go on to the upper line near 10427.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd EURINR It is not easy trading a cross rate and so I think I got it wrong early. The EURINR failed to cross the 73 mark twice in 3 months that I wrote about it. While my view on the Euro played out this contract fell far more than expected due to the delayed decline in the USDINR in the face of a falling dollar. So the gains were completely given back. The lesson here is that while dealing in a cross rate you may hedge the cross currency. So a view on being bullish EURUSD means that the USD is going down and that the INR is going up. If both happen at the same time there is little impact but in this case that was not true. A falling USDINR therefore should...

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd The 50% retracement mark has been reached near 1.059 and 61.8% is at 1.053. Wave II should complete at one of these levels giving way to wave III up that will breakout of the inverted H&S structure with its neckline at 1.082.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit  www.adamsmith.tv  for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd Gold should be starting its next move up. The 20 dma at 1213 and yesterdays swing low of 1223 are supports. iii=i points to 1288 as the next level up based on the fibonacci projection for minor wave iii