Adm Smith - Complete in-depth commodities technical analysis report
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BGMI
When you look at this
index you get an idea of the History of Gold mining. The BGMI or Barrons Gold
Mining Index shows its bull market from the 19640's to 1982. It was long. The
surprise to many would be the sharp decline in the 2010-2014 period given that
Gold prices itself did not fall that much. So you were getting gold miners at
2001 prices [not yet they have moved up now]. The real question to ask is will
another long term bull market now begin! The prices from 1982 fit a nice
channel.
Soy Meal CBT
Soy Meal futures bottomed in Oct from what was a very deep correction of
last years rally. They have now clearly started another move up. Wave III of
III in terms of the wave structure that points to 380$, with support near 330.
Corn
Corn prices are
pushing higher in a rising channel and the trend remains up. The lower end
support is at 356$ and the upper end goes to 400-410. Elliott Waves suggest
this is a third wave and subdividing and far from complete
Coffee (CSCE Futures)
Coffee futures
complete a 61.8% retracement, a perfect level for a bottom to occur. So if an
up move starts from here it should be a 3rd wave that can go to 170 from 142
currently
Crude
51$ remains an
important level for crude as multiple support and resistance points were made
here historically. The long term chart also looks like an inverted H&S
above this level. So is crude taking support here. Except for the recent CFTC
positions that show too many long positions here this level can propel prices
higher towards the 65$ mark. Should we pay attention to CFTC positions. At
times yes but there are times it has not worked so keep this level in mind.
Silver is in a minor correction [wave ii], that should find support near the 20dma at 41620.
Zinc prices ended up at a new high starting wave III of 5. Note that the
current move up is now subdividing into 5 waves itself. III=I points to 215 as
the next important level. Support is near the 20dma at 189.
Lead Prices have been consolidating for a while and at some point will kick off the next move up which will see it to new highs. The broader rising channel for the year is at 175. Support is at 153 and 158 from the 20/40 day averages. Wave wise the next move up would be wave III of 5 and indicates a level of 190.
I always cover copper in $ terms but as it made a new high lets look at the
MCX level projections. Wave 3 up started and started to subdivide. The 3rd wave
based on 3=1 goes up to 492. The subdivisions show the first target near 435
based on III=I. However if III is extended up to 1.618 times [fibonacci ratio]
then we get a number of 463. In short a long way to go before this rally is
over.
Sugar NCDEX
Domestic sugar prices
appear to be following the global price print closely. Daily momentum
indicators are back in buy mode as prices are holding above the 20dma support
of 3860. The next move higher has the potential to make new highs in wave III
of 5. III=I points to 4430 as the next level above the wave 3 high of 3890.
