Adam Smith Associates Technical Report On US Dollar


USDGBP

USDGBP is in a consolidation phase longer term. Marked as a 4th wave, 4th waves are often triangles. Alternatively a falling channel can take the shape of a flat. What this means is that new highs are unlikely. We are in wave C down. If a triangle is forming we should hold the retracements up to 0.80. Below that odds will favour the channel scenario in which it drops to 0.7750. It is aligning with the weak dollar environment




USDAUD


The AUD bottomed against the dollar a year back. So the USDAUD pair has been falling since. It was bouncing around in a range that is marked as wave B. Wave C down has started and should carry it far lower to the lower end of a falling channel at 1.23


USDCAD

USDCAD - broke down from the triangle pattern see in wave C. The Long term pattern is one of a Head and Shoulders top. The pink neckline of the shoulders is the last support at 1.2845. The pattern suggests that this level will break. We have started wave C down from the triangle and that usually goes to C=A which is at 1.155. That is a long way down for the year ahead. Expect more weakness in the USD, and strength in the CAD in the months ahead.



USDCNY

USDCNY - The Chinese Yuan is done with threatening the rest of the world for now. It completed a raly at the upper end of the long term channel and broke the rising trendline fro the Oct bottom [blue line], doing so has kicked off a deeper correction that can push it back to the lower end of the channel in a wave 4 correction. The lower end is at 6.76

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

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