Currency Technical Analysis - May 15



USDINR
USDINR closed last week positive mostly completing wave v down, and today a close above the 20dma at 64.39 would be a first time in 3 months, so it may mark a trend change. First resistance above 64.39 is 64.86




EURO
The Euro could not hold above 1.099 so the case is first for a dip to maybe the 20dma near 1.08 or the gap area at 1.081, and then move up again




USDJPY Breaks Out
USDJPY breaks out of a falling channel and the channel measurement target above 113 is up to 118. I am not concluding on the wave structure yet but the fall is 3 waves making it a corrective decline. The rise appears more impulsive right now.



USDSGD
USDSGD - appears to have completed a correction near a 50% retracement and broken out on price and retracement. With the dollar rally in currency pairs gaining momentum we should see more upside here. Initial resistance is at 1.42 above that to the high at 1.454. But there is a bigger case for a 3rd wave that can drive it to 1.51 as well where 3=1.



USDMXN
USDMXN - Closed the month positive at the lower end of the channel. The monthly chart has a good case for wave 5 up to the upper end again. That would be 23.13. But sometimes with the extended 3rd wave 5 may truncate as a double top near 22 itself.





Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

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