Commodity Technical Analysis

Gold is sitting on its 20dma at 1263, but it has witnessed a trendline break. So I want to highlight that there were two trendline breaks in the last year and both saw steep corrections in Gold prices. So maybe I need to be open to the idea that this break too can be one. Below 1263 we would go back to test the trendline of all the lows at 1226 once more. We are in FED week and the dollar index has very low sentiment so we should be prepared for a snap back rally in the dollar and a correction in gold if it happens. This will not change the long term picture but delays the immediate rally to higher levels. In fact if we do fall that far I would be open even to my April view that we can test the trendline of the bottoms formed since 2015 at 1164 one last time. A close below 1263 would be a starting point....



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