US 30 Years Treasury Bonds, Dow Utilities, S & P 500, Currency And Dollar, Commodity - A Technical Analysis


US 30 YEARS TREASURY BONDS

The 30 year bonds are still holding up and in wave v of C up. The bonds might make one more push higher at least and get closer to the upper end of the channel before we get a meaningful trend reversal from the rising trend in bonds.



DOW UTILITIES

The Dow Utilities chart is a rare one we look at. But here it is. Interesting was that it just touched the trendline from the 2000-2008 highs at the recent high. The entire period fits a channel on a arithmetic scale.



S & P 500

S&P is in wave 5 of 5 and near the upper end of a rising channel on the monthly chart [arithmetic scale]. The next trend reversal would end the 8 year long bull market. Wave 1 of 5 was 5 months and 3 took 4 months, we are in the 3rd month of wave 5 and waiting for the next turn. Till then…



CURRENCY AND DOLLAR

USDBRL
Time to consider the bull case for the USDBRL again. The real has taken support on its long term trendline and started to push higher. The wave count longer term is indicative of a 5th wave that can go to a new high. 3.16 is the lower end of the channel that is acting as the pivot for the trend. 4.11 is the mid channel level.


DOLLAR INDEX
The dollar index took support on the 20dma at 97.07 and should be heading higher towards the 38.2% retracement mark at 98.19


USDINR
USDINR – came very close to the reverse channel. That means take a line of the tops and then take a parallel trendline and put it to the lows. That was at 63.50. The upper end of the channel is at 90, 5=1 is at 85. So the risk reward favors USDINR bulls. I have been marking the rise from the 2008 low as a impulse long term and we should be about to start wave 5 of the move next based on channels.


COMMODITY
LEAD MCX
Lead broke past the 40dema in wave iii minor degree. Levels to watch are support at 137. 38.2% retracement at 144, 50% at 148 and 61.8% at 152


ZINC MCX
Zinc broke out of the falling channel at 165 which should act as a support and the next set of retracement levels are 172-177-182


COPPER MCX
Copper MCX – closed above the averages as they hold above the falling trend since FEB. Momentum turned positive and 362.80 is the recent low support and 385 is the next resistance


WHEAT CBT
Touched the upper end of a falling channel after a corrective advance and thus is open to dropping again from 471 to the lower end of the channel near 300.


COFFEE CSCE
Coffee prices have not yet bottomed and had a big down day yesterday. So chances are they will slip to the neckline near 100. While this level held the last few times we need to watch this time. Agro prices in general are falling everywhere, in India and abroad and no stopping it yet.


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Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients.
 
Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt. Ltd.
 

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