Adam Smith Associates

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd Euro The Euro made a minor new low and bounced back. On the hourly chart its again broken out of a falling channel for the 3 day decline. The rally for 2017 so far was wave I. So we have now retraced 70.70% of the rise in wave II. Wave III up should be next and should test the 1.08 level. US 10 Years Treasury Notes US T notes rallied, as expected since December. But as you see it is a slow moving animal. So as we broke out of a inverted H&S bottom yields will fall further in the coming months. Now unlike EWI I have marked the rise as I-II-III etc of Wave A, while they are marking a-b-c and expecting an immediate decline. I am considering a...

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd Gold Gold - closed above both the weekly averages, the next resistance at the weekly Bollinger band is at 1302$. Also note that at the 2016 Dec bottom while price was higher than the 2015 bottom the RSI had a lower reading in 2016 over 2015, a reverse divergence. A divergence is a divergence and so this is a positive development as of now Silver The Silver fractal has also subdivided where each leg is smaller than the previous one. For this reason we have marked the rise so far as a series of impulse waves. The next projection based on equality in waves iii and i is for a move up to 19.48$ Silver MCX Silver MCX prices face a simi...

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd NASDAQ 100 The RSI moved up to 85 for the Nasdaq 100 as the RSI rises one way with price. There should be a knee jerk reaction sometime to release the overbought reading before the move goes on Dollar Index The Dollar index has formed a head and shoulders top like formation. The right shoulder is a wave II bounce back that ended with an inverted hammer candle pattern. Wave II is an expanded flat wave pattern. Wave III down should test the neckline at 99.10 and on a close below it we should head to the next swing level of 96.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd Crude Crude Oil has spent some time consolidating above the 50$ mark after it broke out of an inverted head and shoulders bottom. Once crude gets past the 55.24, wave 1 high, we should be well on our way to 65$ as the next level that is close to the upper end of the rising channel from the Oct 2016 low at 42.20 Copper Copper took support at the 20dma near 2.70$ and should be well on its way into wave iii of 3. It could move to 2.90-3.02 as the next set of Fibonacci levels based on the Elliott wave fractal. Silver Unlike gold, Silver is seeing a slow and steady advance with daily ups and down. However having broken out of the fa...

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd The Kondratieff cycle was a source of some serious discussion last month at the ATMA meet and I think it was relevant. A lot of science has been used to project end of the world scenarios to the public at large. A lot of science ends in intellectual mind breaking and our search for the holy grail. The answer to all answers. To an extent I do use the Kf cycle to present the case for the Indian economy in a clear light. The monetary cycle is to explain the behaviour of the economy and stock market. But remember that I too use this cycle once in my life. And the cycle is a generational cycle, meaning that it lasts an entire lif...

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd USDSGD Last year I was bullish on the USDSGD and it turned out right. But now as the dollar is weakening I am considering alternate paths. So I wonder if the strong rally at the start of 2011 is wave 1, and not part of what looked like a triangle because of the trendlines. If that is true then the rally in 2016 was wave 5 and the move to a new high completes the pattern. This allows for a deeper correction. The Fibonacci math fit perfectly as wave 3 = 1.618 times wave 1, and wave 5 is just short of equal to wave 1. In this case going back to 1.33 over a year is possible. Euro The Euro completed its right shoulder of an inverted H&S p...

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd BGMI When you look at this index you get an idea of the History of Gold mining. The BGMI or Barrons Gold Mining Index shows its bull market from the 19640's to 1982. It was long. The surprise to many would be the sharp decline in the 2010-2014 period given that Gold prices itself did not fall that much. So you were getting gold miners at 2001 prices [not yet they have moved up now]. The real question to ask is will another long term bull market now begin! The prices from 1982 fit a nice channel. Soy Meal CBT Soy Meal futures bottomed in Oct from what was a very deep correction of last years rally. They have now clearly started another move u...