Adam Smith Associates

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EURO The Euro bull run continued even as bearish sentiment is in single digits. This excessive near term bullish traders reading continues to mean that a 5 wave rise is closer to completion. For the rally to continue unabated a pause or consolidation is needed. That said the big picture remains bullish as everyone has the narrative wrong. US 10 YEARS TREASURY NOTES The 10 year note has retraced almost 50% and wave c=a is nearly done. wave ii should be near completion and wave iii down is to unfold next soon. ------------------- COMMODITIES Gold Gold has its neckline of the lows [blue line], at 1238. So that is a key resistance level. Daily momentum did turn positive and prices broke out of the falling channel but some more signs are needed that the trend has changed to up for good. Aluminium MCX Aluminium rallied in 5 waves and retraced 61.8% at 121.70. Dipped to a low of 120.90. So these supports should help propel it into wave iii up iii=i points to 127.50 ...

The weekly chart of the Sensex provides for a more reliable count for the move now. With the moves since march fitting a rising channel. Wave 1 and 3 here are 5 waves and 3<1, so we are in wave 5 which will be smaller still. And will end at or before the upper channel line at 32300. Will it be a one side move in wave 5 or also a subdivision like the first two impulse waves. While both are possible, subdivisions do sometimes repeat and if so then this last 5 waves up could spend a whole month completing even with a smaller target. But it can end abruptly as well. So we will have to see what happens when a smaller degree 5 waves up completes, do we get a trend reversal. The 5th wave can also end up being an ending pattern which would then be 3-3-3-3-3 in terms of its internal wave counts. All the above would have to weighed on what the sentiment is doing? Will FII data remain reliable where P Notes are concerned? Locally registered FIIs can still trade derivatives. So of the In...

SOY BEAN NCDEX Soy bean prices formed an expanding triangle near the 61.8% mark. Last time I wrote that a bounce can occur because of the triangle but as shown why not a bottom? Possible Wave Y is over. Either another X wave up retracing the Y or the start of a major impulse. The trend should be up as long as we are above 2650. Breakout of the triangle above 3035 to go to 3286. COPPER MCX Copper Closed the week down. Now 365 is the next support. Halting near retracements it is still possible that copper is within a larger corrective structure. The recent rally is not certainly impulsive. So if 365 breaks wee can see it go back to test the 353 low [below 2.62$ to 2.48$]. ZINC MCX Base metals are showing a near term correction after Lead, Aluminium and Zinc look like completing near term 5 wave rallies. The indication therefore is of a positive trend ahead but after a pause correction or retracement. The size of a pullback is hard to say. For Zinc below the 20dma at 1...

US TREASURY BONDS While the 10 year has already broken the rising channel 2 days ago the 30 year bonds are now at the rising trendline near 152. So a further decline in the bond market will get this second confirmation of a break down in the bond market. We would be at the start of a 3rd wave down in US bonds. [We have discussed this scenario and its impact in this months Long short report.] USDCAD The last post identified the Wave B high at 61.8%. From there we have a 5 wave decline so the down trend is established. We may get the first retracement of the fall when the 5 wave decline completes but the larger trend down will resume again, till C=A is achieved. The RSI is getting oversold. 1.33 near the wave 4 high would be a resistance level during a counter trend move up. After that we may head to 1.25 in wave 3 of C. EURO The euro/dollar did not achieve 1.15 and it is hard to say yet that prices have started wave 2 down. When they do we get a retracement of the...

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US 30 YEARS TREASURY BONDS The 30 year bonds are still holding up and in wave v of C up. The bonds might make one more push higher at least and get closer to the upper end of the channel before we get a meaningful trend reversal from the rising trend in bonds. DOW UTILITIES The Dow Utilities chart is a rare one we look at. But here it is. Interesting was that it just touched the trendline from the 2000-2008 highs at the recent high. The entire period fits a channel on a arithmetic scale. S & P 500 S&P is in wave 5 of 5 and near the upper end of a rising channel on the monthly chart [arithmetic scale]. The next trend reversal would end the 8 year long bull market. Wave 1 of 5 was 5 months and 3 took 4 months, we are in the 3rd month of wave 5 and waiting for the next turn. Till then… CURRENCY AND DOLLAR USDBRL Time to consider the bull case for the USDBRL again. The real has taken support on its long term trendline and started to push higher. The...