Currency Technical Analysis Adam Smith Associates




USD JPY
USDJPY breaks the low and starts a minor wave iii decline that can go to 107, and the 5 wave decline may go to 104. But consider the larger picture. We maybe in wave C of a larger degree correction for the USDJPY. If this turns out to be true then we do not stop at these levels. C=A would point to 95. 95 is also 61.8% of wave 1 that took it from 75 to 125. So a larger degree retracement would complete there. Maybe only after that should we consider a bullish case for the USDJPY pair. The Yen bears are going to have to wait. Too many loud and out there




USD INR
The USDINR maybe in free fall but the RSI is at 19 for the third time in 2 weeks is very oversold. Now oversold in a falling trend has been meaningless, that is normal. Will it finally be a bottom though? It could be. The waves are in the final legs so it could be anytime. I can't be too bearish on the USDINR given the set up even as it falls. What you do need is a sign of a reversal from actual price movement. When it happens a snap back to the wave iv high is the first thing we get. That is at 65.17. Above that we get a trend reversal



Euro - The Compressed Zone 
If the Euro holds 1.0568 support then prepare for a springboard lift off for the Euro upwards from here. The reverse can also be true if the support breaks. A move above 1.0689 would further confirm this scenario. This is a neat compression that has gone on for months between bulls and bears.




Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

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