Currency Technical Analysis Adam Smith Associates




USD JPY
USDJPY breaks the low and starts a minor wave iii decline that can go to 107, and the 5 wave decline may go to 104. But consider the larger picture. We maybe in wave C of a larger degree correction for the USDJPY. If this turns out to be true then we do not stop at these levels. C=A would point to 95. 95 is also 61.8% of wave 1 that took it from 75 to 125. So a larger degree retracement would complete there. Maybe only after that should we consider a bullish case for the USDJPY pair. The Yen bears are going to have to wait. Too many loud and out there




USD INR
The USDINR maybe in free fall but the RSI is at 19 for the third time in 2 weeks is very oversold. Now oversold in a falling trend has been meaningless, that is normal. Will it finally be a bottom though? It could be. The waves are in the final legs so it could be anytime. I can't be too bearish on the USDINR given the set up even as it falls. What you do need is a sign of a reversal from actual price movement. When it happens a snap back to the wave iv high is the first thing we get. That is at 65.17. Above that we get a trend reversal



Euro - The Compressed Zone 
If the Euro holds 1.0568 support then prepare for a springboard lift off for the Euro upwards from here. The reverse can also be true if the support breaks. A move above 1.0689 would further confirm this scenario. This is a neat compression that has gone on for months between bulls and bears.




Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Popular posts from this blog

Dow Long Term Outlook

Image
Elliott Wave analysts get blamed for having marked the Y2K top as the end of the 5th wave which was probably just the 4th. This is an occupational hazard. The time frame involved means that if you are wrong then its years worth in price. Still that does not diminish the importance of knowing where you are in the Fractal. Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd
Read more

Trade Finance News and Trends

Trade finance modernization turns towards blockchain A study of European treasurers by working capital fintech C2FO finds that 75% are focusing on investing in trade finance technology in 2017. Colin Sharp, senior vice-president, EMEA at C2FO, says the shifting macroeconomic environment is pressuring corporates to refocus their efforts on trade finance: “Treasurers are facing a lot of uncertainty, both from the US and around Brexit. This is putting stress on the supply chain, with demand increasing and decreasing. Treasures want the ability to use their assets to make returns and give some certainty. Source: https://www.euromoney.com/article/b12khnzp4pq9p5/trade-finance-modernization-turns-towards-blockchain --------------------------------------------- ICC Academy unveils new e-course on digital trade finance and fintechs The educational arm of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), the ICC Academy, has launched an advanced-level e-course entitled “Digital Trade Financ...
Read more

Adam Smith Associates - Soy Meal should move from 310 to 420

Image
Soy Meal Continuous has been consolidating for 3 months in a narrow range after the initial move up. The next move higher may now have started. Yesterdays move broke out of the trend line of the highs and closed above it. Soy prices should move from 310 to 420 near the previous high in the 3rd wave on the CBT exchange. Staying above the 315 and 325 short term supports should be bullish for Soy. Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article is purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst.
Read more