Volatility Divergence And Volatility Index Technical Analysis



Volatility Divergence
The India VIX has been making new lows recently however I published the US VIX 2 weeks ago to show how the new high in the US market was not confirmed by a new low in the US VIX. Now over the last week the US VIX has shot up to a 3 month high. So unless this spike is a one off and drops overnight the rising US VIX should lead the India VIX higher as well. History shows that all big jumps in the US VIX are followed by a jump in India VIX. So Volatility back home maybe about to take off



VIX - Volatility Index
The US CBOE Volatility index best known as the VIX has been falling for a year now, with interim bouts of rallies in between. So are we seeing another garden variety bump up in volatility? Given that some of the news is geopolitical it may appear so. But purely on weekly charts the first half of 2015 saw a 5 wave contracting triangle which coincided with a contraction in the Bollinger Bands and then Vols expanded sharply upwards in the months ahead. Since then once again we have witnessed a triangular pattern with five waves that has now ended in a contraction of Bollinger Bands. So the contraction does make it viable for a larger expansion to follow. One that could break out of the triangle and see new highs. This contraction in bands is a good reason to pay extra attention to volatility expansion this time around.




Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Popular posts from this blog

Dow Long Term Outlook

Image
Elliott Wave analysts get blamed for having marked the Y2K top as the end of the 5th wave which was probably just the 4th. This is an occupational hazard. The time frame involved means that if you are wrong then its years worth in price. Still that does not diminish the importance of knowing where you are in the Fractal. Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd
Read more

Trade Finance News and Trends

Trade finance modernization turns towards blockchain A study of European treasurers by working capital fintech C2FO finds that 75% are focusing on investing in trade finance technology in 2017. Colin Sharp, senior vice-president, EMEA at C2FO, says the shifting macroeconomic environment is pressuring corporates to refocus their efforts on trade finance: “Treasurers are facing a lot of uncertainty, both from the US and around Brexit. This is putting stress on the supply chain, with demand increasing and decreasing. Treasures want the ability to use their assets to make returns and give some certainty. Source: https://www.euromoney.com/article/b12khnzp4pq9p5/trade-finance-modernization-turns-towards-blockchain --------------------------------------------- ICC Academy unveils new e-course on digital trade finance and fintechs The educational arm of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), the ICC Academy, has launched an advanced-level e-course entitled “Digital Trade Financ...
Read more

Adam Smith Associates - Soy Meal should move from 310 to 420

Image
Soy Meal Continuous has been consolidating for 3 months in a narrow range after the initial move up. The next move higher may now have started. Yesterdays move broke out of the trend line of the highs and closed above it. Soy prices should move from 310 to 420 near the previous high in the 3rd wave on the CBT exchange. Staying above the 315 and 325 short term supports should be bullish for Soy. Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients. Views expressed in this article is purely of the author - Mr Rohit Srivastava - a leading technical analyst.
Read more